Brewers Association has a great quantified, objective argument for why craft beer is not in or approaching bubble conditions. The article addresses growth rate, average capacity of new breweries, and all sorts of other nerdy economic data. Here’s the central argument:
In 2009, production was at 66% of capacity. In 2011, it was 78%. If anything, this means there should be less fear of a bubble than in the late 2000’s.
How long can craft keep gobbling up share points at the rate of 1 or 2 points a year? The answer: as long as the consumer demand for full-flavored beer continues, and it shows no signs of slowing.
If the data is sound, then so is the conclusion (assuming that current year data is not grossly out of line with historical trending).